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Author: admin
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Enalyzing The 2018 American Midterms Elections: Making Sense of It All

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[Image: 1C9DD6F1-890B-4986-AD36-64777A73BE47-768x506.jpeg]

I will try to break this down as much as I can. Americans have gone to the polls in what is called Midterm. Some seats become vacant in presidential election years, some in two years. It s staggered so that some people can be campaigning while others can concentrate on governing.

It is well-known that riding a tide of nationalism and "America first", and following the Depression that characterized Obama's first year in office from the Bush Iraq war expenses, the GOP/Republican party won the presidency with Trump and wrestled at least 63 seats from the Democrats and had/have 51 Senate seats in the last ten years. Thus they were fully in charge of all arms of government. 

The Democrats however have come out in full-force to take back a nation where the plurality of voters vote democratic, but the collegiate system (National spread) ensures the Republicans have an advantage

With a strong economy trumpeted under Trump, many expected that the GOP will be cruising to victory. However, because the truth is that the economy had improved under Obama and Trump has kept it steadily on the path to growth (Obama created almost half a million more jobs in his last 6 months than Trump has in any six months) the economy is not what is motivating Americans as exit polls (what people say after voting) shows that healthcare and immigration are what concerns the most. Even Trump knows this and says it as he says people will leave his rallies if he talks about the economy. So he sticks to immigration and whips up the fears of the rural and mostly red (Red means Republican) parts of America where many have no college education and hate to contest for jobs with unskilled and cheaper labour immigrants offer.

For the educated and thriving parts of America like New York, California and the rich parts of Texas like Dallas and Houston, the narrative of "America first" and fear of immigrants have not scored well with the populace. 

And so while the richer and more educated areas in almost all states have trended blue (Democrats), the poor and uneducated white areas have gone even more red. 

More blue also are areas occupied by minorities (blacks and Hispanics and Asians etc) 

And this is the story of the elections. 

GOVERNORSHIP 

Democrats flipped seven seats held by Republicans. Fight for Florida and Georgia continues 

VOTER SUPPRESSION

And because minorities and Hispanics vote Democrat, at least by 3:1 many states have tried to repress such votes and voters. In Georgia, th candidate is also the one in charge of the eection and tried to say any mistake on a person's name makes the person ineligible which the court struck down. Brian Kemp only resigned as the one in charge of election yesterday after the election. His democratic challenger, a woman, Abrams wants every vote counted before she concedes, that is if she loses. 

BLUE WAVE?

Em.... Seems the Democrats have their wave after all. 30 seats flipped to Democrats ensuring they now control the Congress and Nancy Pelosi, the much maligned GOP target, will be speaker and be the THIRD MOST POWERFUL PERSON IN THE US (actually 2nd most powerful as VP has little duties. But third in succession. Yes. In US, House of Rep is the more powerful arm than the Senate)

And also 12 more results remain to be declared especially in Democratic bastions of California with most seats occupied by the Republicans who are falling like flies in California and New Jersey and New York etc. The count of Democratic sweep may get to 35 or even higher if this pattern holds. 

And in the Senate, though the Republicans have 51 seats and had thought they could get to 53 or 54 as more democrats and in Red states were up for election, Republican pick up of seats of Heidi Heitkamp, Claire McCaskill and Joe Donnely had given GOP great joy, they also lost Heller's senate seat in Nevada (He voted against Obama care) and Jeff Flake's Arizona seat may soon be lost too as Sinema, the democratic senate candidate has shot into the lead and votes remaining to be counted are from democratic strongholds. 

FLORIDA AND VOTER FRAUD? 

This state and their voting is once again a cause for argument. Gillum, the Democratic governorship candidate had conceded but not the senator who believe Florida voted democratic. And true to type, many ballot boxes from the democratic strongholds of Palm Beach and Broward are yet to be counted and as they are being counted, the race many thought was over is alive and well. The Republicans are now crying BLUE MURDER literally as Bill Nelson is getting 69 percent of the votes and Gillum 68 percent and if this trend continues and there are more votes, then both Gillum and Nelson will be elected and Trump' boast of Florida come to nought. And even if they do not win outright, the vote difference are likely going to be less than 0.5 percent which means there wil be a recount and in recounts, many votes set aside, usually of minorities will be reviewed and counted. So the Republicans are in a panic mode now and accusing Hillary Clinton and Soros and any name they can bring up when in truth all that is happening is that ALL VOTES ARE BEING COUNTED.  

When people consider actual counting of ALL votes as fraud, you begin to understand when GOP candidates worry and speak about fear of large turnouts. Only one party tries to block the votes. Large turnouts mean black men and Hispanics who hardly vote came out and that spells doom for GOP and their lack of outrich to minorities. 

Note that both the president and governor of Florida are Republicans and control the police who are monitoring each ballot. Note that there are cameras everywhere. Note also that each ballot posted has name and address. It is why Trump with all his talk of voter fraud in 2016 and his committee could not find ten votes that were result of fraud. 

HOW ARE ELECTION IN OTHER AREAS FINISHED BUT NOT FLORIDA, CALIFORNIA, ARIZONA, GEORGIA ETC? 

 Election results announced on television and concessions are based on outlook and percentages eg if in a democratic base the Republican is getting 45 percent and if in a Republican base the democrat is getting 5 percent, if there are more traditional Republican areas, the result is called/declared by Fox or MSNBC saying so and so is projected to win. However, actual counting goes on while the "loser" concedes. The election between Trump and Hillary did not finish counting till day three or longer. But Hillary conceded based on what I explained above. If your stronghold is not much and or your opponent is doing very well and you doing poorly, you already know you will lose and so concede before total votes are counted. 

TRUMP NOT ON BALLOT BUT....

Trump came out to attack Republicans who lost and said it is because they did not "embrace" him. "Mia Love showed me no love" he says. Truth is that these people lost because of HIM. The tax cut and Obamacare votes as well as his anti-minority and perceived racism of Trump turned women and educated people and minorities against him and the GOP. To quote Hogan, a Republican governor in Maryland, a totally BLUE state and who just won reelection while almost every other person voted for is Democratic in the state. he said "This vote is a repudiation of Trump". And in Montana, a totally red state that Tester, a democrat was running and which Trump visited four timesand in which the candidate embraced Trump totally, the candidate still lost

THE GOP RESIGNATIONS

Truth is Congress and senate seats like Jeff Flake's seat and many all over the country were vacated by resigning Republicans who as moderates either could not stand Trump's perceived racism or with how Trumpism has taken over the Repubican party, moderates like them cannot pass the primaries or like Paul Ryan, the retiring speaker of the house, they know the people may reject them over Trump. However one argues it, Trump retired some of the most electable  GOP candidates who had held their seats in democrat-controlled areas for years. They were replaced by hardliners and Nationalists who were good for primaries but bad for general elections were moderates have always faired better. So like or not, these resignation of very strong GOP candidates because of Trump and Trumpism opened the gateway for Democrats to gain so many Congress seats no one dared even pray should change hands. 

OBAMACARE LIVES FOREVER

Even those who voted against it now deny. That is how powerful healthcare and preexisting condition etc became. 

MUELLER PROBE.

With the loss of the house, Trump and his taxes and children are in danger. However, a chess player that is Trump, he has made moves to perhaps stop Mueller before January when the Dems take over the house and begin to use their unilateral "power of subpoena" to get all records Trump and all will wish hidden. 

BETO O"ROUKE LOSES BUT WINS

Texas is RED. But Beto made them love BLUE. He ay not have won, but his brilliant lovely candidacy of pur goodness and uprightness compared to the slithering one of Ted Cruz brightened our days and made it interesting. He may have lost to Ted Cruz, but his national stock rose and he delivered down ballots of congress and state house of congress in the big cities as democrats earned unlikely wins in Texas knocking off many Red incumbents

FINALLY

How far Trump's narrative that has been read to be racist and white irredentist is able to take him remains to be seen. He has lost half an arm of government that was in GOP column before he came on board, Will he tone down his rhetoric and woo the women and minority voters over? Or will he continue the Steve Bannon calculation that "there are still more white voters than black or Hispanic voters. Hold your base. It is enough to win". 
However it is, Trump just lost a powerful arm of his government that can give him trouble. It may not have been the big blue wave blue wave, but can Trump ride the small wave or whatever he chooses to call it? 

POTPOURRI.

Almost a hundred women will constitue the 300 plus house of Congress and senate for the first time ever. 

A gay man was elected and he brought his man-wife on stage

A dead man pimp and brothel owner backed by the church was elected in a state contest in Nevada

Two native Americans were elected. No native American has ever been elected to congress before.  Finally they get to be part of a government of a country taken from them by WHITE IMMIGRANTS. 

Republicans will blame Clinton for everything. 

two indicted and charged Republicans won their elections

Marijuana was legalized in many states that put it on the ballot except one state.

Ena Ofugara.